According to WikiPlast, in the past week the USD fluctuated between 91,000 and 93,000 tomans. On Monday, the Deputy Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency left Tehran after discussions with Iranian officials regarding Iran–IAEA cooperation. On Wednesday, the three European JCPOA member states informed the United Nations that they are prepared to trigger the snapback mechanism and reimpose sanctions unless Tehran resumes nuclear talks.
The market is closely following political news directly linked to the exchange rate. Despite the downward impact of FATF case reviews on the USD, the dollar returned to peak levels this week, reaching as high as 93,000 tomans. Another major development was the launch of the second hall of the regulated currency market, where foreign exchange can be traded at higher rates than in the first hall—potentially affecting the official exchange rate in the regulated market.
It remains unclear whether new rates discovered in the second hall will be used for pricing goods such as petrochemical products. Currently, the gap between the free-market dollar and the regulated market dollar is 22,889 tomans—equivalent to 30.2%. Any change in the base dollar rate could deepen the market downturn, as even with the current regulated market rate of 69,910 tomans, demand is weak. If policymakers alter the exchange rate, the market could face a major shock.
Power outages in industrial units continue. With mid-Mordad marking the peak of summer heat, expectations are rising for cooler weather and fewer outages. In some industrial parks, power is cut entirely for two or three days a week, significantly impacting production.
Regulated Market Dollar Nearing 70,000
The weekly average regulated market dollar from Sunday 19 Mordad to Wednesday 22 Mordad reached 69,893 tomans—an increase of 103 tomans during the period. The rate is steadily approaching the 70,000 toman threshold, and it is expected that sales may cross this mark in the coming days.
Brent Crude Declines
Brent crude, which dropped $3 in the second week of Mordad to end at $66 per barrel, started this week at the same price but fell to $65 per barrel by Wednesday.
Limited Changes in Major Polymer Grades
The 17th set of base prices for petrochemical products in 1404 was announced on Sunday, 19 Mordad. With the exception of a few categories, most polymers saw only slight changes. The new base prices were calculated using a rate of 69,790 tomans per USD, up 79 tomans (0.11%) from 12 Tir.
The sharpest drop was for ABS, which fell 1.5% (down 1,726 tomans) from the previous week. PVC S65 was second, down 1.1% (543 tomans).
On the gaining side, polypropylene (PP) grades took the top four spots. PP textile and film rose 0.62% (up 422 tomans), while PP MR230 and ZR230 increased 0.54% (up 436 tomans).
Trading Volume Drops by 3,500 Tons
The third week of Mordad closed with polymer product trades down 3,481 tons from the previous week, despite a 1,689-ton increase in supply. The total trade value reached 6,367 billion tomans, down 243 billion tomans from last week.
Key figures for this week’s trading:
* Total trades: 94,039 tons (down 3,481 tons from last week)
* Demand volume: down 17,114 tons from last week
* Average final prices for major groups declined week-over-week
* 84.4% of offered volumes were sold
Biggest changes by product:
* Largest drop: PVC, down 1,860 tons traded vs. last week (total 8,276 tons)
* Second-largest drop: PET bottle grade, down 1,073 tons (total 6,501 tons)
* Largest gain: PP textile, up 974 tons (total 11,272 tons)
* Second-largest gain: PET textile grade, up 936 tons (total 3,542 tons)
Polymer Price Ranges (per USD rate discovered in market this week)
* PP chemical: 72,455 – 104,152 tomans
* PP textile: 73,714 – 91,184 tomans
* HDPE injection: 69,790 – 84,849 tomans
* LDPE film: 69,790 – 84,476 tomans
* HDPE blow molding: 69,790 – 82,978 tomans
* HDPE rotational: 71,265 – 80,846 tomans
* EPS: 70,192 – 78,621 tomans
* HDPE film: 69,790 – 78,573 tomans
* LLDPE: 72,591 – 76,017 tomans
* PP film: 69,790 – 75,400 tomans
* PET bottle grade: 69,790 – 74,866 tomans
* PET textile grade: 71,160 – 72,644 tomans
* HDPE extrusion: 69,790 – 72,347 tomans
* PVC: 69,790 – 71,330 tomans
* LDPE injection: 69,790 – 71,100 tomans
* ABS: base 69,790 tomans
* HIPS: base 69,790 tomans
* GPPS: 69,428 – 69,790 tomans
Market Price Changes – Third Week of Mordad
Comparing weeks two and three of Mordad 1404, all polymer prices fell except for EPS, PP film grades, and some PP textile grades.
Top increases:
* PP chemical 440G: +6,000 tomans
* PP textile 550J: +4,800 tomans
* EPS F100: +4,000 tomans
* PP film HP252J: +2,500 tomans
Top declines:
* HDPE blow molding 0035: –8,800 tomans
* PP textile ZR340R: –5,500 tomans
* ABS 150: –3,500 tomans
* PP textile Z30S: –2,000 tomans
* HDPE film F7000 & HIPS 7240: –1,500 tomans
* GPPS 1540: –1,200 tomans
* LDPE film 0075 & HDPE injection 62N07UV: –1,000 tomans
* PET 785 & HDPE rotational 3840: –800 tomans
* LLDPE: –400 tomans
* PVC S65: –300 tomans
* HDPE extrusion grades: no change
Conclusion
This week’s trades fell by 3,400 tons to 94,000 tons in total. The free-market USD began the week at 91,000 tomans but climbed back to 93,000 tomans after news of European countries’ plans to activate the snapback mechanism. Most market prices declined, except for low-MFI PP textile grades and some EPS grades.
The launch of the second hall in the regulated currency market was another major development. Buyers and sellers in this hall can trade at higher rates than in the first hall. No official announcements have yet been made regarding the use of these new rates for pricing goods. As the market moves into the fourth week of Mordad, the weekly average regulated market dollar is up by 100 tomans, and according to Platts, most global prices remained unchanged.
Wikiplast